One Year of "15 Days to Flatten the Curve"

"If we can get all of America to pitch in for the next 15 days, we can flatten the curve.” - Dr. Jerome Adams, U.S. Surgeon General (March 2020)

On March 16, 2020, one year ago today, President Donald Trump announced a fifteen-day effort to "slow the spread" of COVID-19. State and local officials quickly ordered citizens to stay at home, and we were assured this was a short-term, temporary situation to ensure capacity in our hospitals.

The president even reassured the public that these wouldn't be long-term mandates saying, "We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself. At the end of the 15 day period, we will make a decision as to which way we want to go."

And of course, the rest is history. Businesses and occupations were divided into essential and non-essential, with the non-essentials closing their doors... many for good. Individuals were told that this was their "World War II" and the most patriotic thing they could do is sit at home and watch Netflix. (Really, that happened.) Those who even questioned the efficacy of shutting down the world were called insensitive and told they were "going to kill grandma."

And we wonder how a pandemic got politicized?

We were given apocalyptic predictions about infection rates of "40 to 70 percent" and told millions would die. Yet a year later, less than ten percent of the U.S. population has reported contracting the virus (29.5 million cases in a population of 328 million), while roughly half a million (0.16%) have lost their lives. I make this point not to underplay the tragedy of these deaths or the seriousness of the illness but to call into question the accuracy of much of the modeling and predictions used to justify draconian lockdowns.

"The thing we were worried about was going to kill a giant portion of our population... A half a million Americans have died with COVID, and yeah, it's a tragedy, but what is more of a tragedy is that there is not an emphasis on keeping people healthy. The emphasis is only on social distance, wear three masks, and wait for a vaccine." - Joe Rogan

From the start of the pandemic, no one has been willing to admit what they don't know and as a result, so-called experts have just assumed the worst with devastating consequences for our economy and individual liberties.

Early on, we were told one of the most challenging aspects of COVID-19 was that individuals could spread the virus even if they showed no symptoms. Then in June, the World Health Organization released a statement saying "[a]symptomatic spread of COVID-19 is 'very rare.'" Initially, we were told to wear gloves and be wary of surfaces, only to have the CDC months later backtrack and state the "virus does not spread easily from contaminated surfaces." On the efficacy of masks, Dr. Anthony Fauci has held positions ranging from "masks aren't necessary" to wearing two or three masks is "common sense."

What ought to be "common sense" is speaking the truth to the American people, even when situations are challenging and demoralizing. Instead Fauci chose to lie to the American people, stating months later he did so to save supplies for frontline medical workers and we would have been "better off" by masking from the beginning. If he had been honest from the start, Americans would have understood and industry would have stepped up and made masks just like they did with hand sanitizer. Instead, he lied and lost the trust of half the country.

If intense lockdown protocols were an effective way to mitigate against infection and death rates, the data would show states such as California and New York with much better outcomes than Texas and Florida. That is just not the case. Differences in infection rates are statistically insignificant and New York has the highest death rate.

If results are virtually identical regardless of the level of the shutdown, wouldn't the most pragmatic solution be to mirror Florida and allow individuals to make their own decisions about what is best for the health and safety of their families?

The answer for many is no for a variety of reasons. For some, the only control they are able to find during these uncertain times is through clinging to a false sense of safety and trusting the guidance of established authorities as gospel. For others, it is an exercise in self-righteousness that allows for them to virtue signal indignation at anyone that does not take the pandemic as seriously as them.

The New York Times of all places, acknowledged this phenomenon in a recent piece titled 'Covid Absolutism.' This excerpt sums it up nicely: "Telling Americans to wear masks when they’re unnecessary undermines efforts to persuade more people to wear masks where they are vital... Banning college students from outdoor walks won’t make them stay inside their dorm rooms for weeks on end. But it probably will increase the chances that they surreptitiously gather indoors... Rules that are really more about showing that you’re doing something versus doing something that’s actually effective are counterproductive." (i.e. - We've Got to do Something!)

So where do we go from here? You would think between growing herd immunity and the deployment of three vaccines, unnecessary nanny state regulations on individuals and businesses would start to diminish, and in some places they certainly have.

However, at the national level, it seems the Biden Administration is doubling down on the status quo of shutdowns, social distancing, and masks, as the primary solution to COVID-19. Just last week, President Biden stated: “If we do our part, by July 4th, there’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard... and celebrate Independence Day... Small groups will be able to get together.”

This is supposed to be encouraging to the American public? We are supposed to applaud the notion that if we behave... the government will grant us rights we already have... five months from now? What has happened to this country?

"Comfort and physical safety are boons to humanity, but they bring some costs, too. We adapt to our new and improved circumstances and then lower the bar for what we count as intolerable levels of discomfort and risk." - Greg Lukianoff

The degree to which we have allowed the government to unilaterally bring our economy and lives to a halt without due process and input from the general public is unacceptable. Much like after 9/11, where the government leveraged an act of terror to seize unprecedented power in the form of the Patriot Act, we have allowed the government to go even further in the name of public health.

Policy decisions can, and should, be based on more than safety alone. Without weighing economic and civil liberty concerns, the decisions made often result in unrealistic policies that will not have the buy-in necessary from the population at large to be effective. Let's hope our government has learned that lesson as we move into year two.